Villanova vs Pittsburgh: Elite 8 Odds & Picks
Written March 28, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz
Another game, another scare for the Pitt Panthers. From ETSU to Oklahoma State and now most recently Xavier take Pittsburgh down to the wire. Sloppy play with offensive confusion yet again.. However, as the time reached under one minute to go, Senior point guard Levance Fields did what he seems to do every single game, take a huge shot and drain it with no worry. The panthers have been non impressive in every game so far in this tournament. They did put up 84 points against Oklahoma State but gave up 76 (49 in the first half). DeJuan Blair is as dominant as any player in this tournament with the exception of Blake Griffin. He will certainly be a match up issue for Dante Cunningham and Nova. Sam Young will be guarded by a combination of Wildcats. Reggie Redding, Dwayne Anderson and maybe even Corey Stokes will get the nod to slow him down. If Pittsburgh does not get offensive production from Jermaine Dixon in this game, they are going to lose. It is as simple as that. The combination of Corey Stokes and Corey Fisher are overwhelming offensively. Fields will have his work cut out for him running and gunning all game with Reynolds. Pittsburgh better be focused and not have one of those games where they slack off. Villanova sold me in the Sweet Sixteen when they embarrassed Duke who i picked to beat them. Be ready for the re-match Panthers, Nova will be. Looking at the college basketball spreads for Saturday, Pitt is favored by 2 over Nova and the total is set at 141 points.
Villanova is some interesting team. In the first round they are down 10 points at half to American University in a game that is being played in Philadelphia (Nova’s backyard). They storm back to win the game, then go on to ambush UCLA in the second round, they follow that up with a 77-54 highlight reel against Duke. They out classed, coached, worked and really, were flat out better. They were the more talented team and oh boy, it showed. The Wildcats rely on their speed to open games up. Pittsburgh does have the right pieces to make this a half court set, slow paced game. While Pitt can run with Nova, it is not something I would recommend. Scottie Reynolds is a flat out star. He drove Coach K and Duke bananas on Thursday night. Villanova will have a big obstacle to overcome in this game. They MUST protect the glass. DeJuan Blair amongst his many impressive attributes, is the nations best offensive rebounder. If Cunningham can keep him off the glass and Nova can limit Pitt to one shot attempt for the majority of their possessions, I believe they will win. It is a big IF though.
Haimo’s Hot Notes: At this point of the year, throw the trends out of the window. What a team did a year or two ago is irrelevant. What registers in my mind right now is…A) What have you done for me lately? B) How do you match up style wise against your opponent? and C) Experience. Villanova in my eyes has more precise and accurate answers to those questions then Pittsburgh does. For all of my consistent readers you know that I have been hard of Nova all year. For all you first timers, this is the first time I have picked them all season long. Pittsburgh, while they do have Fields, do not have much big game experience elsewhere. If he does not hit that bomb of a three pointer with under a minute left in the game vs Xavier, who knows if they pull that out. The combination of Reynolds, Fisher & Stokes combo, Redding, Anderson and most importantly Cunningham get the job done in this game and send Nova to the final four. Here are my position breakdowns.
Point Guard: Levance Fields vs Scottie Reynolds (EDGE-EVEN) This showdown of star guards has be back and forth. There is no doubt that Scottie is the better overall talent. Levance however is a winner who just always seems to come up big what it is most urgent for him to do so. Reynolds has much more speed and is a more consistent shooter. Levance is big time in big games. he has that extra IT factor about him even when you think “no way he is going to hit that”. So, I took a bail out answer. DEAD EVEN.
Shooting Guard: Jermaine Dixon (Wanamaker) vs Reggie Redding (Stokes/Fisher) (EDGE-VILLANOVA) This one I do not see being nearly as even as the previous match up listed above. Fisher and Stokes are three point snipers. They shoot out of half court set offense or in transition. They are bigger and Stronger then Dixon and Wanamaker who both have been playing rather weak as of late in my mind. This will work very large in Nova’s favor. Big time edge for the Cats.
Small Forward: Dwayne Anderson vs Sam Young: (EDGE-PITTSBURGH) This is not as bad a match up for Nova as some may think. Anderson is very athletic which will help his cause in guarding Young. With that said Sam Young is an All-Conference performer and possible All-American. This is where the Panthers have an edge that is blatant. Not a total mis-match, but a nice sized edge.
Power Forward: Dejuan Blair vs Shane Clark: (EDGE-PITTSBURGH) These are the names on paper. However, you’ll see Cunningham on Blair often in this game. So, while the edge obviously goes to Pittsburgh here it is a bit skewed. Clark will need to body Blair up as best that he can. Play with heart and leave it all on the court. That is about all that needs to be said here. Total mis-match…on paper.
Center: Tyrell Biggs vs Dante Cunningham: (EDGE-VILLANOVA) This to me, will be the difference in the game. Cunningham is strong enough to guard and body up Biggs. Tyrell on the other hand, has no shot to run with Cunningham in the open court. Dante’s speed and face up ability will be a nightmare for Biggs or bench player Gilbert Brown to handle.. If Dante can make his impact felt strongly on both the offensive and defensive ends, it will go a long way for Nova.
INTANGIBLES/COACHING: (EDGE-VILLANOVA) Jay Wright is no longer an up and comer in the coaching profession. He is established. His mastermind showed very clearly in the Sweet Sixteen. Yes, I am aware Nova was just better then Duke, but give Wright some credit as well. The bench play is a major advantage for The Wildcats. This team is deep and dangerous. The guys they bring off the pine can start for almost any team in the country. This team is clicking at the right time. Look Out, It took me almost two months to warm up to this Big East power house, but i have arrived. Look for Nova to knock off the #1 seeded Panthers.
Betting Line: Pittsburgh -2
Jordan’s Pick: Take Villanova +2
Get more college basketball picks to help you win when you bet on NCAA basketball throughout the tournament.
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- Villanova vs Duke: Sweet 16 Picks & Predictions
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- Villanova vs Louisville: Big East Tournament Predictions
- Odds to Win the NCAA Championship: Villanova Wildcats
- Final Four Betting Preview: Villanova Wildcats
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