Virginia at Duke
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Virginia Cavaliers will look for their third straight win when they go on the road to take on the Duke Blue Devils. The Cavaliers stunned the Miami Hurricanes last week with a 24-19 win, while the Blue Devils snapped a six game losing streak with a 34-31 win at Navy. If you are thinking about betting on the game this weekend, the current odds have the Cavaliers favored by 1-point over the Blue Devils on the road.
Virginia (4-4, 1-3 ACC): With the game tied at 0-0 the Cavaliers knocked Miami starting quarterback Jacory Harris out of the game, and things just kept going the Cavaliers way after that. Virginia opened up a 24-0 lead and was able to hold off a late rally to take home the win.
The Cavaliers really benefited from Miami’s mistakes last week, as they intercepted the Hurricanes five times, three of which led to touchdowns on the Cavaliers ensuing possession. For the game the Cavaliers were outgained 448 to 361. Quarterback Marc Verica completed 19 of 27 attempts for 176 yards and a score, but also had an interception. Keith Payne came up big with 81 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries, and Perry Jones added 69 yards on 22 attempts.
The defense looked a lot better than it has in weeks past in conference play. The Cavalier came into the game last week allowing 37 points a pop in their first three conference games. The defense will be tested in the air again this week, as the Blue Devils come in averaging 262 yards a game through the air.
Duke (2-6, 0-4 ACC): The Blue Devils got off to a great start last week, leading 24-0 at half, but it nearly wasn’t enough, as the Blue Devils defense came back to reality and allowed Navy to close the gap to 34-31 with just over two minutes remaining, but was fortunate enough to hold on for the win. Duke’s defense is 112th in the country allowing nearly 38 points a game, and it nearly cost them a win last week.
Offensively the Blue Devils got another big day from quarterback Sean Renfree, who threw for 314 yards and a touchdown and ran for 28 yards and two more scores. Duke had one of their best rushing performances of the season with 142 yards, and may go back to it even more this week, as the Cavaliers come into the game 103rd in the country against the run, allowing 207 yards a game.
The key for the Blue Devils will be playing mistake free football on the offensive side of the ball, and they are going to need to make a couple big plays on the defensive side of the ball as well.
Looking at the Odds: Both teams are coming off their most impressive win of the season, but I feel like Virginia’s win had a little more luck involved, while Duke really outplayed Navy. The fact that Virginia just beat Miami is going to have a lot of people on the Cavaliers this week, but the oddsmakers want that. Virginia is just 2-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog since 1992, and only 5-15 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. since 1992. My final score prediction is Duke 30, Virginia 24.
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