2011 WAC Football Predictions
Written by Steve Janus
The Western Athletic Conference (WAC) has watched the Boise State Broncos win or share eight of the last nine titles. With the Broncos shift to the Mountain West Conference, the WAC appears to be as wide open as ever. In 2010 Boise State, Nevada, and Hawaii all finished the season with a 7-1 conference record, as the Wolf Pack spoiled the Broncos perfect season in a thrilling 34-31 overtime win late in the year. While there appears to be four teams who really have a shot at winning the conference in 2011, there isn’t much that separates the eight teams left.
Here is a look at how I see the WAC playing out this season, plus a little bit on why I have each team ranked where I do.
1. Fresno State Bulldogs – The Bulldogs have a difficult conference schedule with road games at both Nevada and Hawaii, but are 11-5 (two of those losses against Boise State) on the road over the last four years in the WAC. All the hype heading into the fall is on sophomore quarterback Derek Carr, who should compete with Hawaii’s Bryant Moniz for the top quarterback honors in the conference. Add in the fact that the Bulldogs return junior running back Robbie Rouse, who rushed for 1,129 yards and eight touchdowns, and the Bulldogs should be able to score with any team in the WAC. Boise State has shown that if you have big time talent at the quarterback position, you are in good shape against the defenses in this conference.
2. Hawaii Warriors – I had a hard time picking the Warriors this high with just nine starters back from their 10-4 run in 2010, but with Moniz at quarterback the Warriors should be able to rack up points on the offensive side of the ball. Moniz will have to overcome the loss of three of his top four receivers from last year, but we are talking about a guy who completed 65% of his passes for 5,040 yards with 39 touchdowns to just 15 interceptions. Head coach Greg McMakin has done a great job of getting receivers to step in and excel, and I think that will be the case again in 2011. Hawaii should also have one of the best front-sevens on the defensive side of the ball, which is a big reason why I have them ahead of Nevada and Louisiana Tech.
3. Nevada Wolf Pack – The Wolf Pack have the difficult challenge of replacing their two biggest weapons offensively in quarterback Colin Kaepernick and running back Vai Taua. Kaepernick not only threw for 3,022 yards and 21 touchdowns, but was second on the team with 1,206 rushing yards and had a team best 20 rushing touchdowns. Taua led the way with 1,610 yards and 19 touchdowns. While I still think the Bulldogs will be a solid team, I don’t think they will be anywhere close to the team they were in 2010. They do benefit from playing their four toughest games in the conference at home, but I don’t think it will be enough to land them the WAC Title.
4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -The Bulldogs went just 5-7 in 2010, but should be ready to bounce back this season. Louisiana Tech will have to replace starting quarterback Ross Jenkins, but I wouldn’t be surprised if junior Colby Cameron stepped in and put up better numbers in his first season. The Bulldogs also bring back running back Lennon Creer, who rushed for 1,161 yards and 10 touchdowns, and appear to be strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They key to the Bulldogs making a run at the title, will big time improvements on the defensive end. Louisiana Tech gave up 30.7 ppg in 2010, and just don’t have the offense to win games playing at that pace.
5. Idaho Vandals – The Vandals had a disappointing 6-7 season after going 8-5 in 2009, and for the second straight season return just four starters on the offensive side of the ball. Three of those starters come on the offensive line, which means if they can get solid play out of senior quarterback Brian Reader and junior running back Ryan Bass (Arizona State transfer) they could end up surprising everyone and competing for the top spot in the WAC. If they can go 3-1 in their four home games against Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii, and Utah State, I don’t think there is any doubt they will finish higher than what I have them projected.
6. San Jose State Spartans -When you look at the Spartans 1-12 record from last year, the initial thought would be that this was not a very good football team. What many people don’t realize is this team was really beat up from opening the season against Alabama, Wisconsin, and Utah in their first four games. Despite the brutal start, the Spartans could have easily finished 4-4 instead of 0-8 in the WAC, as they had four losses by a combined 16 points. With 18 starters back from last year, including all 11 on the defensive side of the ball, don’t be surprised if head coach Mike MacIntyre has this team finishing much higher in the standings in 2011.
7. Utah State Aggies – Utah State come into 2011 off a 4-8 run in 2010. While I have the Aggies picked to finish near the bottom in the WAC, this team also has the potential to surprise some people and finish more in the middle of the pack. They have two very talented players on offense in running back Robert Turbin (torn ACL in 2010) and wide out Kerwynn Williams. They key for this team will be finding someone to produce at quarterback, and improving a defense that allowed just under 34 ppg in 2010.
8. New Mexico State Aggies – There hasn’t been a whole lot to be excited about if you are a New Mexico State fan, as the Aggies haven’t won more than five games in a single season since going 7-6 back in 2002. While the come into this season off a 2-10 campaign, I like the direction head coach DeWayne Walker is taking this team. With all the parity between the eight teams in the WAC this season, the Aggies should be much more competitive than they were in 2010. Still we are talking about a team that averaged just 15.7 ppg offensively and gave up 39.5 ppg last year. Improvements will be made, but I don’t know that it will end up in a much better finish in the WAC.
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