• Buy Sports Picks
• Free Sports Picks
• Sports Betting Forum

• Article Archives
• Resources

Week 13 NFL Handicapping

The purpose of this article is not to stop you from betting on sports but rather to help you develop another perception of sports betting that will help you avoid costly mistakes. We, the founders of Unlocked Sports
, are handicappers ourselves and like all sports bettors we have made some mistakes in the past. We have learned from those mistakes and we would like to share with you some useful handicapping tips that will help you be more profitable with your sports betting. We provide free picks on a weekly basis to our members. For a limited time, membership to Unlocked Sports is completely free. Sign up for your free membership today! We were 6-3 last week and this week we will have at least 7 NFL picks posted.

Every week experts and handicappers will make their NFL predictions. The experts or analysts do it because they have to, meanwhile the handicappers have the luxury of picking and choosing their favorite games to predict. After all, they make a living out of this. Once in a while analysts and handicappers will openly admit that they are not too sure or comfortable in picking a winner for a given football game. When you add the factor of the spread it makes things even more complicated. That’s why sometimes the most profitable betting decisions you make are avoiding betting on the wrong games.

There are a few symptoms that you may feel when you are analyzing a game that you shouldn’t bet on. They include;

1. Going back and forth between picking the favorite and the underdog or the point total for the same game.

For example, the Pats are favored by 1 point against the Steelers this week. You believe that the Steelers will cover because they have the best defensive numbers in the league. Then you remember that Matt Cassel threw for over 400 yards in his last 2 contests and so you change your mind. If something like this happens, then you should consider the fact that this game could go either way and that you have no advantage in betting on the game, meaning that you will not win more than 50% of the time in these kinds of situations. When betting against the spread you must win over 53% of your bets in the long run in order to be profitable. Since the bookies pay out less than 1 to 1 bets against the spread, you will lose money over the long run by making these kinds of bets.

2. Knowing the favorite will win, but not being sure if they’ll cover.

This happens quite often. The best example I could give you would be last year’s New England Patriots. Last season the Pats covered their first 8 games and then failed to cover 9 out of their next 11 games. By that point, the NFL odds makers inflated the spreads beyond reason at a time when more or less each opponent New England faced played at the top of their game. Sharp bettors were making a lot of money betting against the Pats. Oddsmakers come out with spreads based on public perception, not necessarily based on realistic situational game factors. Remember, NFL teams care about winning, not covering spreads. So if you ever have any doubts on the favorite covering, then don’t bet. Just to give you an idea… Double digit underdogs have covered over 80% of the time this season.

3. Acknowledging that there are too many factors that may affect the outcome of the game.

This situation is somewhat similar to the first one. However, rather then going back and forth between picking a winner, you are acknowledging that there are too many factors to consider before even picking a winner. Injuries play a very important factor. When key players are a “gametime decision” you will only find out if they are playing 2 hours before kickoff. Even at that, it is hard to determine how efficient they will be since they are obviously not going to be 100%. Think of how many times bettors have been frustrated by Brian Westbrook of the Philadelphia Eagles. When he’s healthy he is literally half of their offense and they are a very tough team to beat. When he’s not healthy they lose a lot more football games. Other key factors include weather, home/away tendencies, streaks, etc. I think the Cardinals/Eagles game is a strong example of a game where there are too many factors to consider. I have posted all the details explaining why to not bet on this one just below. There are at least 4 or 5 serious factors to take into consideration for this game.

Games to avoid this week

1. Arizona Cardinals +3 @ Philadelphia Eagles

Reason: Philadelphia has played terrible recently going 0-2-1 in their last 3. Brian Westbrook is not 100%. Donovan McNabb is looking to rebound from a poor performance against Baltimore where he was benched at halftime for throwing 3 picks. Then you have Arizona who is traveling to the East Coast on a short week. No west coast teams have won a game in the Eastern Time zone this season. Arizona has played 3 games in the East Coast this season and has allowed an average of 35.7 points to the opponent in those contests. The bottom line is that here are too many factors to consider in this one.

2. Indianapolis Colts -5 @ Cleveland Browns

Reason: Indianapolis is riding a 4 game winning streak but is 2-5 ATS versus a team with a losing record and 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games following a win. Cleveland, on the other hand, is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games versus a team with a winning record. So does this mean you should go with Cleveland? Well, Derek Anderson will be starting instead of Brady Quinn and receiver Braylon Edwards is dropping more than 1 pass a game. Defensively the Browns have been atrocious recently, allowing an average of 28.5 points in their past 4 games. Additionally, Cleveland has proven that it has the ability to beat tough teams as it defeated the Giants 35-14. Seeing how well the Colts have been playing and given all the factors favoring Cleveland, how are you supposed to determine who will cover? There are too many factors to consider. If Brady Quinn was playing, I’d bet Indy. But pro bowl quarterback Derek Anderson’s back in the mix and has a lot to prove.

3. Denver Broncos +9 @ New York Jets

Reason: The Jets have played very well in their last 3 games, blowing out the Rams, defeating the Pats and handing the Titans their first loss of the season. But it is hard to pick the Jets to cover 9 points against the Broncos. Denver has been an underdog three times this season and covered twice. Each of the games it has been an underdog was on the road. Jay Cutler has a very favorable matchup against the Jets’ defense as they are ranked 26th in pass defense. Overall Denver is 3-7-1 ATS. I personally wouldn’t dare take Denver to cover against the Jets but they have proven to be one of the most unpredictable teams in the league. This is a situation where you don’t play the favorite since the spread is too high.

4. Kansas City Chiefs +3 @ Oakland Raiders

Reason: Oakland is one of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL. The Raiders at one point scored a total of only 6 points in back to back games and then covered in their next two, including a blowout 31-10 victory over Denver last week. They have a favorable matchup against Kansas City because they have the 10th best ground attack in the league and are facing the second worst rush defense. The last time these teams played Oakland won 23-8 and rushed for 300 yards. This is more than enough reason to lay the points on Oakland. However, the Chiefs are desperate and only have one victory this whole season. The numbers favor Kansas City. They have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between the two and the road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Additionally, Oakland is 17-35-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and 19-39-1 ATS in its last 59 games against a team with a losing record. Also, no one knows how Oakland will perform. This team is just too inconsistent. Notice how I just convinced myself to bet for Oakland then afterwards to bet against them. This is why I would stay away from this one.

If you want more help with your NFL betting then get signed up for the football picks offered by our experts!

If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:

• Week 5 NFL Betting Trends
• Week 11 NFL Picks
• NBA Handicapping
• Week 13 NFL Picks
• College Basketball Handicapping

Copyright © 2003 - 2009 BetFirms.com - Free Sports Picks and Predictions Web Site! -