West Virginia at South Florida Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Thursday the West Virginia Mountaineers will take on the South Florida Bulls in a huge Big East matchup. The Mountaineers improved to 4-2 inside the Big East with a thrilling 21-20 win at home over Pittsburgh on Saturday.While West Virginia is going to need some help, they still have a shot at earning the Big East’s automatic bid to a BCS game. With a win over South Florida the Bulls would tie Louisville on top the standings at 5-2 in conference play, but because the Mountaineers lost to Louisville earlier this season, they would need Cincinnati to win at home over Connecticut to force a three-way tie. If that were to happen West Virginia would win the tie breaker because they are ranked the highest of the three in the BCS standings. The Mountaineers beat the Bulls 20-6 at home last season, but haven’t won at South Florida since 2005 when the two teams played for the first time.

Taking a look at the week 14 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have West Virginia favored by 1-point over South Florida with the total set at 50.5 points.

West Virginia:

The Mountaineers have to feel very fortunate to even have a shot at playing for the Big East title. West Virginia trailed Pittsburgh 7-20 after the Panthers connected on a 27-yard field goal early in the third quarter. The Mountaineers defense would step up and hold Pittsburgh scoreless the rest of the game, while the offense managed to score two touchdowns to secure the win.

After being forced to punt on their first five possessions of the game, Geno Smith and Stedman Bailey got the offense on the board with a 63-yard pass and catch for a touchdown. Smith provided most of the offense for the Mountaineers, throwing for 244 yards on 22 of 31 passing.

Shawne Alston would rush for just 34 yards on 11 attempts, but scored two huge touchdowns, including a 1-yard touchdown run that gave West Virginia the lead for good with 6:10 left in the 4th quarter.

West Virginia’s offense appears to have a very favorable matchup this Thursday. The Bulls are great at stopping the run, holding opposing offenses to just 105.5 ypg on the ground, but they have struggled against the pass. They just allowed Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater to throw for 241 yards and three touchdowns on just 28 attempts, and come into the game giving up an average of 245.2 ypg through the air. Despite a poor showing against Pittsburgh, West Virginia ranks 6th in the nation averaging 351.4 passing yards a game.

South Florida:

It has been an extremely disappointing season for the Bulls in 2011. After opening the season 4-0, South Florida is a miserable 1-6 over their last seven games. This team has had a terrible time winning close games since beating Notre Dame 23-20 in the first game of the season. Since that game they are 0-5 in games decided by 10-points or less. Despite all the heartbreaking losses, this team can still become bowl eligible with a win at home over West Virginia.

It looked as though South Florida was on their way to knocking off Louisville last week, as they they took a 17-3 lead on a 1-yard touchdown run by Demetris Murray with just 35 seconds to play in the first half. Instead of taking a comfortable two touchdown lead into the second half, South Florida allowed Louisville to answer with a touchdown in the final seconds. The Cardinals took control from that point, and would go on to outscore the Bulls 24-7 in the final two quarters.

The Bulls came into the game averaging 195.0 rushing yards, but were able to manage just 64 yards on 31 attempts. Most of the offense came from quarterback Bobby Eveld, who finished with 210 yards on 20 of 35 passing.

If the Bulls are going to have any chance of knocking off West Virginia, they have to have a better performance on the ground. The Mountaineers come in ranked 46th against the run, allowing just over 138.0 ypg. They allowed 159 yards in their last game against Pittsburgh, but the Panthers needed 58 attempts to get to that mark.

Betting Trends:

West Virginia is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

South Florida is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in College Football.

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