2011 Wisconsin Football Predictions
Written by Patrick Webb
The Badgers head into 2011 looking to reload and repeat as Co-Big Ten Champs (they shared the title with Ohio State and Michigan State). Wisconsin could be the program best poised to take advantage of the fall out at Ohio State, as they are coming off of back-to-back 10+ win seasons. Bret Bielema has the Badgers in position to take the initial Leaders Division title as he has recruited extremely well over his five years at the helm.
Wisconsin lost several key pieces on offense, but managed to hold on to offensive coordinator Paul Chryst, who had interest from several programs including Texas. Defensive coordinator Dave Doeren left to take the head job at Northern Illinois (replacing new Minnesota coach Jerry Kill), but promoted from within, splitting the job between co-coordinators Chris Ash (secondary) and Charlie Partridge (defensive line).
The Badgers are coming off a Rose Bowl loss to TCU, but this team rode their strong defense and explosive rushing attack last season. On offense the Badgers lose QB Scott Tolzien (72.9%, 2,459 yards, 16/6), offensive linemen Gabe Carimi, John Moffitt, and Bill Nagy (all three drafted into the NFL), TE Lance Kendricks (43 rec.,663 yards, 5 TDs), WR/KR/PR David Gilreath, along with steady WR Isaac Anderson, and TB John Clay (1,012 yards, 5.4 ypc, 14 TDs).
Defensively Wisconsin lost first-round draft pick J.J. Watt (14 TFL, 7 sacks), LBs Culmer St. Jean, Blake Sorenssen (led team in tackles) and Kevin Rouse, S Jay Valia, and CB Niles Brinkley. The Badgers do get a couple of key linebackers back from injuries last season and return depth at nearly every position on defense.
QB is the biggest question mark for the Badgers this off season, but they could be adding N.C. State transfer Russell Wilson (58.4%, 3,563 yards, 28/14), who would have one season of eligibility left and can play immediately. He would be a good fit for this offense and could possibly be a talent upgrade from Tolzien, who was consistent despite an average arm and athletic ability. If Wilson doesn’t end up in Madison, the job looks to belong to Jon Budmayr, who threw only 10 passes last season in limited snaps.
Tailback depth is not an issue with leading-rusher James White (1,052 yards, 6.7 ypc, 14 TDs) and Montee Ball (996, 6.1 ypc, 18 TDs), both return for the Badgers’ 2011 campaign. Wisconsin has recruited this position extremely well and has talented youngsters waiting in the wings if Ball or White should go down for any significant amount of time.
Replacing the multi-talented Kendricks will be tough, but Wisconsin has several TEs with game experience. Jacob Pederson looks to be the next pass catching threat at either H or TE for the Badgers. Nick Toon and Jared Abbrederis return to give the Badgers two experienced receivers, and I think Toon has the potential to be First-Team All-Big Ten. A name to watch is freshman Kenzel Doe, who could fill the slot role that Gilreath excelled at, and could take his reps as a returner as well.
Wisconsin loses three solid offensive linemen, including first-round NFL draft choice Carimi at LT, but feel they will reload this unit with Josh Oglesby back from injury and 6’4”/338 lbs guard Travis Frederick, who started 4 games last season as a true freshman, ready to step in and start. Peter Konz returns at center, though he is likely to leave after this season for an NFL career.
The Badgers do have some holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin’s best pass rusher, J.J. Watt, is gone, but they regain the services of LB Chris Borland, who took an injury red-shirt, but excelled as a pass rusher as a true freshman in specialty formations. Watt’s three starting teammates on the d-line all return, plus Wisconsin has depth at the DT spot rotating four players there last season.
In a strange way LB Blake Sorensen will be missed more than MLB St. Jean as Sorensen could play multiple roles on the defense and was an excellent pass defender. Mike Taylor seems completely recovered from an ACL injury in ’09 and is expected to take over the MLB spot. Chris Borland has the speed and athleticism to see playing time at either outside linebacker position, and the Badgers have several youngsters pushing the experienced Kevin Claxton for the other outside spot.
Wisconsin loses Valai and Brinkley, but could be better as a cover unit this year with Antonio Fenelus returning at one corner spot and FS Aaron Henry returning after his first healthy season. Devin Smith and Marcus Cromartie have both seen reps on defense, with Smith seeing some time as a starter in the past. The last few recruiting classes for the Badgers have been heavy on defensive backs, so one or two of those younger players could emerge this season to push for a starting job. This unit will likely defend the pass better than last season (14 Ints, 193.9 pass yards per game), and with a healthy Borland and Taylor at linebacker, along with the new co-defensive coordinators, I expect them to be a better third down and red zone defense as well.
Wisconsin’s special teams are returning punter Brad Nortmann (42.7 yards per punt / 37.6 yards net) and PK Phillip Welch (17-22 FGs, 8-11 from between 40 and 49 yards), but lose a key returner in Gilreath. The Badgers have hired a special teams coach for the first time in Bielema’s tenure. This team will have plenty of skill talent to replace Gilreath, but may be a bit less explosive, especially on the punt return.
Schedule Analysis: The Badgers don’t face a significant threat in their non-conference slate as they host three home games (including Oregon State) and face Northern Illinois at Soldier Field in Chicago. Wisconsin has a favorable schedule laid out for them in Big Ten play as they get Nebraska at home at night (26-3 in their last 29 home night games) in the opener followed by a home game with Indiana. Back-to-back away games with Ohio State and Michigan State are likely the keys to the season. If they win both it should be clear sailing towards the championship game with Purdue and Penn State at home, followed by road trips to Minnesota and Illinois. The Badgers should be favored in 10 games this year and may be favored in 11 depending on Ohio State’s early season performance.
Final Record Prediction: 11-1 Overall (7-1 Big Ten – 1st in Leaders Division)
- Kyle Hunter – has Wisconsin at 13-1 and worth a look for the national title.
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