Wisconsin at Illinois Line

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 17 Wisconsin Badgers will look to keep their Big Ten title hopes alive when they go on the road to face the Illinois Fighting Illini this Saturday. The Badgers come in off an easy 42-13 win at Minnesota to improve to 4-2 in the conference. With Penn State’s loss at home to Nebraska, the Badgers are just a game back in the Leaders division with a home game against Penn State looming large next week. The Fighting Illini lost 14-31 at home to Michigan the past weekend, and have now lost four straight after opening the season 6-0 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten. These two teams haven’t faced each other since Wisconsin downed Illinois 27-17 back in 2008.

Taking a look at the week 12 college football lines, oddsmakers currently have the Badgers favored by 14-points with the total set at 52 points.

Wisconsin:

There’s no doubt the Badgers came into the season with the expectation of going undefeated and playing for the National Championship, but back-to-back road losses against Michigan State and Ohio State put those hopes to rest. Winning the Big Ten seems to be enough to get this team motivated down the stretch, as they have looked outstanding in their last two games against Purdue and Minnesota.

After scoring just 60 points in their two losses to Michigan State and Ohio State, the Wisconsin offense has exploded for 104 points over their last two games, including 62 points in a 45-point win over Purdue. In their last game against Minnesota Russell Wilson threw for 178 yards and four touchdowns on 16 of 17 passing. Montee Ball led the way on the ground with 166 yards and two touchdowns, while Nick Toon caught eight passes for 100 yards and two scores.

Whether or not the Badgers offense can continue to have that kind of success against the Fighting Illini will determine if they can cover this large spread on the road. Illinois is 9th in the country, allowing just 288 yards of total offense a game. However, the Fighting Illini gave up 31 points and 362 yards of offense in their last game against Michigan. The stat that has me thinking Wisconsin is going to roll this week is the 223 rushing yards they gave up the Wolverines.

Illinois:

The Fighting Illini have found it hard to keep fighting after the way their season has unfolded over the last four games. After losing three straight games by 10-points or less against Ohio State, Purdue, and Penn State, Illinois barely showed up to play at home against the Wolverines, and now have to face arguably the best offense the Big Ten has to offer.

The Fighting Illini have played well enough defensively to be right in the middle of the Big Ten title race, but they simply can’t do enough offensively to win games. They haven’t scored more than 14 points during their four game losing streak, and twice were held to just 7-points.

In their most recent game against the Wolverines they managed just 214 yards of total offense, thanks to a rushing attack that produced just 37 yards on 33 attempts. Nathan Scheelhaase and the passing game wasn’t much better, as the sophomore went just 16 of 31 for 170 yards with no touchdowns to one interception. While the defense might be able to keep Wisconsin from reaching their average of 46.5 points per game, you have to wonder if the Fighting Illini can put together enough offense to keep this game close.

If Illinois is going to have success offensively against the Badgers, they are going to need to get their ground game going, as the Badgers come in allowing 134.1 ypg on the ground. The key for Illinois will be keeping this game close early, as they simply have no chance if they fall behind and are forced to throw the ball against a Wisconsin defense that ranks 2nd in the country against the pass, allowing just 146.3 ypg.

Betting Trends:

Wisconsin is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Illinois is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Steve Janus is the No. 5 college football handicapper in 2011, and is ready to help you turn a profit with his week 12 college football selections.

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