UNLV at Wisconsin Line

Written by Steve Janus

This Thursday the No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers will get their 2011 season kicked off at home against the UNLV Rebels. These two teams opened up play against each other last year, with the Badgers winning 41-21 at UNLV. The game is scheduled for 8:oo ET and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Current college football odds have Wisconsin favored by 35.5 points over UNLV with the total set at 56.

The Badgers come into the season off a share of the Big Ten title in 2010. Wisconsin ended up finishing the year with an overall record of 11-2, but will be hungry for a win after falling to TCU 19-21 in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin has just 12 starters back from last year, but they did add in North Carolina State quarterback Russell Wilson.

The Badgers averaged 41.5 ppg behind an outstanding rushing attack that averaged 246 ypg. While they lose a 1,000 yard rusher in John Clay, they bring back Monte Ball and James White, who combined for 2,048 yards and 32 touchdowns.

Defensively the Badgers lose their top three tacklers from last year, including 1st-Team Big 10 defensive end J.J. Watt. With an offense that figures to have no trouble scoring the football, the Badgers shouldn’t have to rely on their defense to win them games in 2011.

The Rebels were on the other end of the spectrum in 2010, as they finished the season with a 2-11 record. UNLV averaged just 18.4 ppg while giving up just over 32 ppg on the defensive side. With just 11 starters back and only four on the defensive side of the ball, it doesn’t look like the Rebels will be making a whole lot of progress in their second season under head coach Bobby Hauck.

While UNLV has seven starters back on offense, they did lose starting quarterback Omar Clayton, who departed with the second most passing yards in UNLV history (6,560). Sophomore Caleb Herring will step in for Clayton after seeing limited action in 2010. What he does with the offense will play a huge role in whether or not the Rebels improve off last year’s miserable season.

Betting Trends:

Laying 35.5 points in any game is not easy, but UNLV appears to be a safe team to lay the points against. Over the last 2 seasons the Rebels are 0-7 ATS as a road underdog. The average score in those games was UNLV 11.3, Opponent 46.0.

When Wisconsin is favored to win the game, more times than not the game goes over the total. The OVER is 20-7 in the Badgers last 27 games when they are listed as the favorite.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the Rebels last five games against Big Ten Opponents and a perfect 4-0 in their last four games played on Thursday.

While it seems like everything points to a Wisconsin blowout, UNLV is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings against the Badgers. They just barely covered last year as 20.5 point underdogs. One of those covers was a 23-5 outright win over Wisconsin in 2003, where the No. 14 Badgers were favored by 20 points.

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