2009 World Series Predictions
Written August 11, 2009 by Jack Jones
If you go strictly by the MLB odds, we are looking at a World Series between the New York Yankees (+225 odds to win the World Series) and the LA Dodgers (+450), both the favorites in their respective leagues. If history has shown us anything, however, it’s that the favorites don’t always win, especially when it comes to baseball.
Major League Baseball is one of the most difficult sports to predict in terms of futures bets, because the season and the playoffs are so long. There’s also the problem with starting pitchers. If the ace of a staff goes down with a month left in the season, that’s going to change your entire outlook of who might win the World Series. Pitchers are the most vulnerable to injury, and have the biggest impact on the odds than any other position in any other sport.
American League Favorites
New York Yankees (+225) - The Yankees have come on incredibly strong in the second half of the season. C.C. Sabathia is doing exactly what they paid him for, winning games late in the season, and A.J. Burnett has emerged as a legitimate #2 in their rotation. The rest of their starting rotation can be great or it can be a disaster, but having those two at the top of the rotation will make the Yankees hard to beat in a best-of-seven playoff series. Offensively, the Yankees have been very productive, thanks in part to their new hitter-friendly ballpark, but the good news is that they aren’t relying on just one guy to get the job done. Derek Jeter leads the team in batting average at .315, while Mark Teixeira has made an immediate impact, leading the team in home runs (29) and RBI (83). At this point in the season I can see why the Yankees are favored to win the World Series, they do have the best record in the majors, however, they also have a very difficult road ahead, especially if the Boston Red Sox catch fire, though Boston has slipped to 5.5 games back in the division.
Los Angeles Angels (+700) – The Angels benefit from playing in the AL West. It is more competitive than it has been in the past, however, they still have one of the easier paths to the playoffs in the American League. LA also has a solid one-two punch at the top of their rotation with John Lackey and Jered Weaver have excellent seasons. They are short on starters, however, and the rest of the rotation has struggled, so they can ill afford for one of those guys to go down win an injury. Offensively, the Angels have the best team batting average in baseball at .288, and they rank 2nd in runs scored this season (the Yankees are 1st). Currently, the Angels hold a 4-game lead in the division over the Texas, but the Rangers have been one of this seasons’ biggest surprises, and could throw a wrench into LA’s plans to win the AL West.
National League Favorites
LA Dodgers (+450) – They started the seasons as the hottest team in baseball, and the run-away favorites to win the National League Pennant, but the Dodgers have had a difficult second half. They still have a 5.5 game lead over the surging Colorado Rockies, but they can no longer expect to coast to the divisional title. A concern I have with the Dodgers is that they have great young starting pitchers in Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw. While both have been great this season, I worry how they might perform in a playoff situation simply due to lack of experience. They do have a solid offense and bullpen, however, including a dominant closer in Johnathan Broxton, which still gives them the nod as the favorite to win the World Series from the National League.
Philadelphia Phillies (+600) – The Phillies have the scariest line up in the National League, maybe in all of baseball, and they lead all NL teams in runs scored this year. The addition of Cliff Lee to their staff was crucial, mostly because their ace, Cole Hamels, has put up mediocre numbers this year. They’ve also received a pleasant surprise in 26-year-old lefty starter J.A. Happ, who has stepped right in and put up some pretty impressive numbers. My biggest concern with Philly is their bullpen, where Brad Lidge has struggled as the closer, and his back-up, Ryan Madson did not throw all that well in June when Lidge went down with an injury. The Phillies are still a very dangerous team and when they are hitting well, there are few teams in the majors that can keep up with them.
2009 World Series Prediction: New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — Yankees win in 6 games.
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GO YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!
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I’m a die – hard Yankee fan. They are playing great baseball right now but the playoffs could get dicy. Their pitching and defense are good but not great. They have real problems with the Angels who just acquired Scott Kazmir from Tampa Bay and he’s a Yankee killer. They won’t face them until the second round which is good news if the standings hold. Boston is also not going away and since they’ve copied everything the Yankees do it’s like beating your twin. I think they wrote,” If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.” Plus they play in that band box in Fenway where it’s almost impossible to beat them. They better hope they never tear down Fenway because they would be a 500 club. If the Yanks make it through the playoffs they will face tough clubs in the NL especially the Phillies who have great pitching. Sabathia’s record in the playoffs is dismal and A.J.Burnett is a toss the coin pitcher every time out. I think I’d start Petite in game 2 of a series because he’s been there. So bring it on. It’s like Jeter said – It’s not always the best team that wins, it’s the hottest.
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