Sweet Sixteen Predictions: Xavier vs Pittsburgh
Written March 25, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz
The Pitt Panthers have been the most unimpressive #1 seed in the tournament to date. They slipped by #16 seed East Tennessee State in the first round and was played to the very end against Oklahoma State in the second round. The All-Conference and possible All-American forward Sam Young has led his team. Young dropped 32 points and collected 8 rebounds against Oklahoma State while adding three blocks. He is their most explosive player and the go to guy in crunch time. Soon to be first team All-American F/C DeJuan Blair has played well so far. I wouldn’t say he has been great but definitely noticeable. Levance Fields has been very shaky, he has shot poorly and has made some big errors in these first two games. Dixon and Biggs have both been decent and the bench for The panthers have been okay at best. When broken down in terms of statistics, this game favors Pittsburgh quite nicely. They average more points per game and shot better from the field and free throw line, they also played in the toughest conference in the nation so that is a stat that is important to note. Xavier gives up three less points per game against.
The Xavier Musketeers defeated Portland State in the first round and then went on to handle Wisconsin rather easily in the second. Xavier is a well balanced team. They play strong aggressive defense and ball movement offense. They are led by forwards B.J. Raymond and Derrick Brown who average a combined 28 points and 10 rebounds per game. They are the key for X’s success. Guards C.J. Anderson and Dante Jackson will face the task of slowing down Levance Fields and Jermaine Dixon. I hope nobody believes the Musketeers will be shell shocked, keep in mind that they were one non intentional foul call away on Greg Oden from beating a #1 seed two years ago. Their is also a juicy headline in this game. Coach Sean Miller of Xavier was a star Pittsburgh guard. He faces off against his Alma mater for the first time. This year Xavier has some marquee wins vs Missouri and vs Memphis. Xavier only gives up 62 points per game as this has been argued to be Sean Miller’s best defensive team. Looking at the NCAA basketball lines and seeing the spread for this game is deceiving. Pittsburgh is -7 over Xavier currently and that scares me a bit. I take a look at the O/U and see it at 139. Both teams combine to average 149 points per game which is substantially more then the number. Hold the phone just a second, Pitt and Xavier only give up a combined 126 points per game against. Both these teams strengths are with their Forwards (Big Men). I’m feeling something along the lines of a 67-61 final score. This feels just right. Lay off the game and make money on the UNDER.
Point Guard: Levance Fields vs Dante’ Jackson (EDGE-PITTSBURGH) Fields averages 11 points and 8 assists per game while Jackson collects 6.5 points and 3 assists per game. Jackson has a considerable height advantage but that will not come into play. Pittsburgh’s senior leader will get the better of this match up.
Shooting Guard: CJ Anderson vs Jermaine Dixon (EDGE-XAVIER) This one may turn some heads. Jermaine Dixon is a fantastic defender and can hit the occasional three pointer. He averages 9 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Anderson of Xavier averages 10 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Also, Dixon is 6′3 while Anderson is 6′6 and has a post game to boot. I like CJ in this showdown.
Small Forward: Sam Young vs BJ Raymond (EDGE-PITTSBURGH) How unfortunate this is for The Musketeers. Normally this position is chalked for Xavier, not this time. Raymond is a stud, he averages 14 points and 4 boards a game being this teams go to guy. Sam Young is Pitt’s All-Conference monster. He averages 19 points and 6 rebounds per game and is coming off a 32 point explosion against Oklahoma State. Xavier will need to make this loss up somewhere else.
Power Forward: DeJuan Blair vs Derrick Brown (EDGE-PITTSBURGH) Another position Xavier is used to getting and edge on. Not going to happen here. The nations best offensive rebounder and soon to be unanimous first team All-American DeJuan Blair averages 16 points and 12 rebounds per game. Brown does put up respectable numbers averages 14 points and 6 rebounds per contest. I expect brown to play well, not as well as Blair though.
Center: Jason Love vs Tyrell Biggs (EDGE-XAVIER) This I believe will be Xavier’s best match up. If Jason Love does not get into foul trouble he will be able to post up Biggs and get him into foul trouble early. Now, It can go the exact opposite way as Love is known to pick up early fouls as he did versus Wisconsin last round. Love averages 7 points and 6 rebounds a game while Biggs puts up7 points and 4.5 rebounds. Love is more athletic and is a smarter basketball player in the post.
Bench/Intangibles: (EDGE-PITTSBURGH) Coach Miller will be very focused and anxious to square off against the team he once led on the court. Xavier does average more points off the bench with guys like Kenny Frease, Terrell Holloway and Brad Redford. Pittsburgh has depth as well that are a bit more seasoned. Brad Wanamaker is a good three point shooter and it will be key to see how healthy Gilbert Brown is. The book says Xavier should get the edge, I can’t do it. The Big East powerhouse in Pitt needs to be shown this respect in terms of the word intangibles.
Betting Line: Pittsburgh/Xavier O/U 139
Jordan’s Pick: Take Pittsburgh/Xavier UNDER 139
Documented Record To Date:
14-13 OVERALL
6-4 BEST BET RECORD
Make sure to check out my South Region Sweet Sixteen articles and picks.
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2 Responses to “Sweet Sixteen Predictions: Xavier vs Pittsburgh”
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Blair will most likely be guarded by Love (265) and Big Kenny Frease (7′ 270) who will have 10 fouls to give.
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bobbie,
That is certainly a possibility. Although Love will most liekly be on biggs as he is the only man with the size to match up per that position. Your point though with the 10 fouls is well made. That is a key factor to why i love the under. The game will be slowed down, excellent comment. I hope you took my advice on this one.
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