New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Predictions
Written June 9, 2009 by Steve Janus
Just one game separates the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox in the American League East standings. This has always been one of the best rivalries in sports, but since the teams are fighting for first in the division, there is an added electricity to the series. The Yankees are currently 1 game ahead of the Red Sox, having won 2 straight and 7 of their last 10 overall. Boston lost their last outing, but have won 6 of their last 10 overall and come into this 3 game series at Fenway with a 5-0 record against the Yankees, including a 3-0 record on their home field. This appears to be a different Yankee team, however, so let’s take a deeper look at each team and see if we can’t find a winner. The MLB lines for tonight’s game show the Red Sox -135 against the Yankees and the over/under set for 9.5 runs.
Yankees Starter: A.J. Burnett – The Yankees spent a boat-load of cash to obtain Burnett in the off-season, but he’s been anything but the savior of the staff. In 11 starts, Burnett has a 4.69 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The good news is that Burnett is 4-2 and the Yankees are 7-4 this season in his starts. The better news is that Burnett has never lost to the Red Sox. He has 9 career starts against them and a 5-0 record with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. It should be said that he does not have a decision against the Sox while playing for the Yankees, however, and his one start this season against them was a brutal 5 inning outing in which he gave up 8 earned runs, but lucked out in not receiving the decision.
Red Sox Starter: Josh Beckett – Much like Burnett, Beckett hasn’t been great this season. He’s posted a 4.09 ERA and a 1.67 ERA, earning a 6-2 record in 11 starts (the Red Sox are 8-3 overall in those starts). What can be said about Beckett, however, is that he’s been amazing in his last 3 starts. In that span he is 2-0 with a microscopic 0.40 ERA and a 0.45 WHIP. Beckett is 9-5 in his career against the Yankees and his most recent start was a win on May 5th at the new Yankee Stadium, where he out-dueled Joba Chamberlin for a 7-3 Boston victory.
Yankees Hitting: You’d be hard-pressed to find a more consistent line up than the Yankees this season. They are averaging .277 as a team and scoring 5.7 runs per game. The impressive part of this offense is that their numbers don’t seem to waiver in different situations. Whether they are home or away, hitting against right or left-handed starters, their numbers stay about the same, at that’s a very good thing in baseball.
Red Sox Hitting: The Red Sox are one of the best hitting teams in baseball at home, where they average 6 runs per game and are hitting .291 as a team. This is one of the major reasons they are 18-8 at Fenway in 2009.
Yankees Bullpen: New York’s relievers have been okay over the course of the season, but they have been terrible in road games. They come into Tuesday’s game with a collective 5.01 ERA, a 1-5 record, and 3 blown saves in 9 chances.
Red Sox Bullpen: This is one of the strongest relief staffs in baseball. Boston’s pen has a 2.76 ERA this season, a 7-6 record (4-1 in Boston), and they have converted 16 of 19 save opportunities behind their star closer, Johnathan Paplebon.
The Red Sox are favored for a reason in tonight’s match up. They have the hotter of the two pitchers, their bullpen is clearly better, and their hitting is on par with the Yankees when they play their games at Fenway. First place is on the line in the AL East tonight, and all indications are that the Red Sox will be sitting a game up on the Yankees after the game.
Pick: Boston Red Sox [-135 at Sportsbook.com]
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